The Arithmetic of Erasure: Deconstructing Mogadishu’s Narrative

By Abdiwahab Sancawl

When the UN Security Council met recently to discuss Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, the room was tense. Somalia’s Ambassador, Abukar Dahir Osman, took the floor to oppose the decision. That was expected. But what happened next deserves a closer look.

The Ambassador didn’t just argue against recognition. He tried to shrink a whole nation into a misleading map and dismiss its people with made-up statistics.

He claimed that Somaliland is essentially just “two regions” called the Northwest and the Northeast. He then used that framing to suggest the “Northeast” makes up about 45% of the country and is hostile to the idea of Somaliland.

It sounds like a neat, clean argument. But it is not a history lesson. It is a political trick.

Old Labels Are Not New Facts

The Ambassador’s argument relies on confusing the audience with old administrative labels. It is true that the early post-independence government used terms like “North-Western” and “North-Eastern” for its provinces. But those were just names for government paperwork. They were never meant to draw a hard line between different groups of people.

To understand why his map is wrong, you have to look at the real building blocks of the country. The territory was historically made up of six districts: Hargeisa, Berbera, Borama, Burao, Erigavo, and Las Anod.
In 1964, the government grouped these into two big provinces. The “North-Eastern” province included Burao, Erigavo, and Las Anod.

This is where the Ambassador’s story falls apart. By using that old label, he is trying to imply that the entire “North-East” is one solid block of opposition. That is factually incorrect.

The “North-East” includes Burao, the second-largest city in the country and a cradle of Somaliland’s independence. It includes Erigavo, a diverse city that is deeply committed to the nation.

The Problem with the “45%” Number

The most dangerous part of his speech was the claim that this area represents a “45%” wedge against Somaliland. This number does not come from a census or a voter roll. It is a phantom statistic.

The strategy here is simple but dishonest. He is taking the very real political situation in Las Anod and stretching it to cover half the map. He is trying to make the specific grievances of one district look like they apply to Burao and Erigavo too.

This erases the lived reality of the people in those regions. The citizens of Burao and Erigavo are not just abstract numbers to be traded in New York. They are foundational pillars of the state. Their businesses, their families, and their security are woven into the fabric of the nation.

To claim they are part of a “hostile 45%” is to pretend they do not exist.

Why This Rhetoric is Dangerous

Somalia is trying to replace legitimacy with arithmetic. By throwing around these clan-coded numbers at the UN, they are hoping the world will stop looking at Somaliland as a functioning democracy and start seeing it as a messy tribal puzzle.

This is corrosive diplomacy. It treats the people of the northern regions as props. It invites outsiders to ignore the complex reality of Somaliland, where family ties and shared interests cut across the line’s diplomats like to draw on maps.

The Bottom Line

Supporters of Somaliland do not need to deny the rights of any community to win this argument. We only need to insist on the truth.

The “North-East” that the Ambassador talked about includes cities that are the beating heart of Somaliland. No honest reading of history supports the simple picture he painted for the UN.

The Security Council should be a place where arguments are tested by evidence, not shaped by convenient and inventive math.